未知的味觉

看到北大经济中心的霍德明教授在网上被股民群殴，我真的想告诉霍教授，在中国谈论股市只能用两种腔调：涨的时候说还会继续涨，跌的时候时候说没关系这只是短期调整。否则必然会被股民套上一个利益代言人或者智力低下的帽子，然后群殴致死。这个世界上没有只涨不跌的股市，但是很多股民只愿意听只涨不跌的故事。我在很久以前被义愤填膺的股民群殴过几次之后，就不怎么说股市了。其实有几次被群殴的时候，我都根本没说股市，我只是在说通货膨胀有点严重需要加息，就被人当作要唱衰股市然后顺便殴之。我当“利益集团代言人”的次数就更不计其数了。
不过私下里，我最喜欢跟人讲的关于股市的故事是去年夏天的一个认沽权证。认沽权证是只有在股市跌的时候才能赚钱的东西。去年夏天的一个认沽权证的行权价格只有股票市场价格的30％，我算了一下，按照中国10％跌停的规矩，那支股票只有连续超过两个星期的跌停版，这支认购权证的价值才大于 0，换言之，这个认购权证在其行权日之前两个星期，其价值就严格是0了－没有任何不确定性的价值为0，这支股票不可能在两个星期之内跌到行权价之下，即使每天都跌停版。所以，在这两个星期中，任何买卖这个权证的行为都是严格的炒作，炒作一个没有任何价值的东西。可是让人瞠目的是，这个完全没有任何价值的东西，再其作废前一天还暴涨的百分之几百，然后才像自由落体一样落到0点，像死猪一样动也不动了，更不要说这个价格早就应该是0的东西，在这之前的两个星期里一路上扬，跟整个股市竟然走向一致。拜托，这是一个做空的权证，股市涨，它也涨，这太反映中国有多少勇敢的股民了。
我今天稍微抽象一点的想一下印花税问题，完全不针对目前股市的走向，我就问这么一个问题：对于像中国这样的股市，到底印花税高点好还是低点好？
中国的印花税，比起发达国家，是有点高。可是中国股票的换手率，比起发达国家，也有点高。印花税，根本没有阻止人们在短期买进卖出的热情。如果不告诉你中国的印花税率，只让你看中国的股票交易量，你一定会觉得中国是世界上股票交易成本最低的地方之一，中国股民买卖股票就跟不用缴税一样。
我对资本市场的理解，特别是发展中国家资本市场的理解是，对于这些国家，短期的资本的进进出出，流来流去，似乎在很多时候是干坏事而不是好事。对于直接关于股市的研究我没见过，但是很多发展中国家的金融危机都是因为短期资本大进大出导致的，因此有很多人建议，要往轮子里面撒点沙子，也就是增加短期资本流动的成本，防止失去控制。这是一个非常有争议的想法，因为总是有人觉得任何阻碍资本自由流动的想法都是坏的。但我本人是更倾向于同意，对于发展中国家的资本市场，对短期的操作有一些成本，是好事，不是坏事。
如果我上面说的这些是有道理的，那提高印花税，而不是降低印花税，也许才是应该做的，并且会是一个利好。提高印花税，有利于减少那些短期的炒作，从而在一定程度上抑制股市的大起大落。大起大落，对中小股民，其实是很坏的。
当然，在中国的股市里，什么叫利好什么叫利空完全是事后的。前年还有去年早些时候，央行一加息或者提准备金率，股票就涨，这被解读成利空出尽，所以是利好。今年，加息就变成了利空。同样的事情，股票涨的时候就是利好，股票跌的时候就是利空，就是这样。
转自这里

This is the VOA Special English Development Report.

A new study says Asia must do more to prevent AIDS, or the number of people infected with H.I.V. could double by two thousand twenty. Today about five million people in Asia are living with the virus that causes AIDS.

An estimated three hundred thousand people died of H.I.V.-related diseases in Asia last year. At current rates, that number could rise to almost five hundred thousand.

The United Nations program on H.I.V./AIDS requested the study, led by Indian economist Chakravarthi Rangarajan.

The report says three main groups are driving the spread of AIDS in Asia. One group is sex workers and the men who use them. Another is injection drug users who share needles. And the third group are men who have unprotected sex with other men.

Researchers estimate that as many as ten million women in Asia sell sex. At least seventy-five million men buy on a regular basis. In many Asian countries, these men, and their female partners, represent the largest group of people living with H.I.V.

The study found that AIDS is the most likely cause of death and lost work days for people in Asia between the ages of fifteen and forty-four.

The report says prevention programs can be effective if governments invest at least thirty cents a year per person.

For more than twenty years, scientists have been trying to develop a vaccine to prevent H.I.V. infection. The latest failures came last September. Researchers halted two studies of an experimental AIDS vaccine from the drug company Merck.

Early results showed that the vaccine not only failed to protect, it appeared to put some people at higher risk of infection.

Last Tuesday, several hundred researchers and activists met in Bethesda, Maryland, for a Summit on H.I.V. Vaccine Research and Development. They debated what to do now.

Many of the scientists agreed that experimental vaccines should continue to be tested on humans. But many said there should be less dependence on human trials.

Anthony Fauci is head of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, which called the meeting. He and others said there should be more tests on animals, to add to discoveries from human studies.

There also were calls for a return to more basic science, first identifying and answering major scientific questions. But Doctor Fauci said the search for an AIDS vaccine will not stop.

And that’s the VOA Special English Development Report, written by Jill Moss.

 

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